Food Prices and Grocery Affordability – Latest Inflation Trends and Impacts in the U.S.
February 14, 2026
Food prices in the United States remain high, putting pressure on grocery affordability for millions of families. In the latest news, grocery prices are still climbing in 2026 – albeit at a slower overall pace – while consumers adapt their shopping habits to cope with food inflation. This update covers current data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food, highlights inflation trends for everyday groceries (from eggs and bread to meat and coffee), and examines how households and communities are responding. Food prices and their impact on food insecurity are front and center, but there are also innovative efforts – including a free grocery store in NYC – aiming to help those in need.
Food Inflation Slows, But Grocery Prices Keep Climbing
Inflation trends: After two years of steep food inflation, the overall rise in grocery costs has moderated. In January 2026, food at home prices were about 2.1% higher year-over-year (YoY) – a far cry from the double-digit increases seen at the height of the inflation surge. On a month-over-month (MoM) basis, grocery prices nudged up only 0.2% in January, indicating that price increases have slowed. This is welcome news for consumers’ wallets. By comparison, food away from home (restaurant menu prices) remains hotter, roughly 4% higher YoY, but saw only a minimal 0.1% uptick last month. In short, inflation is cooling overall, yet many grocery items are still more expensive than a year ago, keeping the cost of groceries high for households.
Mixed basket: Some staple foods have actually gotten cheaper recently, even as others keep rising. Here’s a look at how grocery prices for common items are trending:
Egg prices: After skyrocketing last year, egg prices have plummeted. Eggs are 34% cheaper than a year ago (avian flu drove them to record highs in early 2025) and fell 5.3% just last month. This sharp decline offers relief on a formerly costly protein.
Beef prices: Beef remains 15% more expensive YoY – one of the largest annual increases among foods – but beef prices did tick down 0.4% MoM as cattle herds recover. High meat prices, especially for beef, continue to squeeze budgets despite the recent slight dip. (Chicken and poultry prices, by contrast, have been relatively flat over the past year, providing a bit more stability for consumers who switch to poultry.)
Cereal and bakery (bread) prices: Grain-based foods are still climbing. Cereal, bread, and bakery prices jumped 1.2% in January alone and are up 3.1% versus last year. Items like flour, crackers and baked goods are driving these increases. In practical terms, bread prices and cereal aisle costs are higher than ever, adding to breakfast bills.
Milk and dairy: Dairy product costs are holding steady overall. The dairy index was essentially flat (about 0% change YoY) and up a modest 0.8% last month. Milk prices have leveled off compared to last year’s highs, offering some consistency for families. Cheese and other dairy staples remain pricey but not escalating much further.
Fruits and vegetables: Produce prices are mixed. Fresh fruits and veggies saw only a 0.8% increase over the past year, and some items actually got cheaper post-harvest. For example, banana prices, which had been elevated, dipped 0.7% in January. However, canned fruit prices jumped ~5% recently, showing that not all produce-related costs are down. Overall, produce prices have been more stable than other food categories.
Coffee prices: Your morning cup is notably more expensive. Coffee is still about 18% pricier than a year ago – one of the steepest annual increases among groceries – although coffee did see a small 0.9% price drop last month. Poor harvests in key coffee-growing regions and supply chain issues earlier have kept coffee prices high. (Many shoppers have felt the sting in the coffee aisle, where a can of ground coffee that cost $6.50 in 2025 might be $8+ now.)
Overall grocery basket: Most everyday foods cost more than they used to. While a few categories (like eggs) are down, many others are up, and “food at home” CPI is still ~2–2.4% higher than a year prior. For context, grocery prices overall are about 30% higher than before the pandemic (2019). These price increases over time mean the average American family is spending substantially more on groceries than just a few years ago.
Households Adjust Spending Amid High Food Prices
Consumers under strain: Americans are acutely feeling the impact of higher food prices at the checkout line. “Everything is expensive — the milk, the eggs, the cereal,” one Chicago mother of two explained, loading $250 worth of groceries into her car. A box of name-brand cereal now runs “almost $10” in her area. To cope with the cost of groceries, she cooks at home more often (reserving takeout for an occasional Friday treat) and makes big batches of meals like spaghetti and chicken Alfredo to stretch into leftovers. She also sometimes drives 30 minutes to a cheaper supermarket outside the city to save on her weekly shop. Her story is common – across the country, families are changing how they shop, cook, and eat in response to food inflation.
Cost-cutting habits: A recent Consumer Food Insights survey by Purdue University confirms that the vast majority of U.S. households have modified their grocery shopping behavior to battle high prices. In fact, 82% of consumers reported changing how they shop for food in 2025 due to economic pressures. The most common adjustments include:
Hunting for sales and discounts on groceries (waiting for deals, using coupons)
Switching to cheaper brands or store-brand products instead of name brands
Cutting out nonessential items and splurges from the grocery list (fewer snacks, desserts, etc.)
These budget-conscious strategies were cited as the top responses in the survey. Many shoppers are effectively trading down and prioritizing value to make their dollars go further. As one of the report’s authors noted, higher overall food prices were the primary driver behind these changes (56% of consumers said this was their main reason). Other households, especially lower-income ones, also pointed to reduced income or job loss as a factor limiting their food budget.
Regional Differences in Grocery Costs (City vs. State)
Not all Americans face the same grocery prices. Consumers often wonder about “grocery prices near me,” and indeed the burden of food costs can vary widely by city and by state. Geography, local supply conditions, and income levels all play a role in grocery affordability across the country.
Big-city price check – Chicago: In some urban areas, grocery inflation has been especially pronounced. For example, grocery prices in Chicago jumped significantly over the past year. The Chicago Sun-Times conducted a yearlong price tracker, checking 35 common items at major Chicago supermarkets. The findings: most items got more expensive, and very few got cheaper. At one leading chain (Jewel-Osco), 18 of 35 products saw price increases, 15 stayed flat, and only 2 dropped in price over the year. As a result, the total cost of the basket at that store rose from $263 in January 2025 to $285 in February 2026 – an increase of $21.80 in just 13 months. That is roughly an 8% jump, outpacing general inflation. It validates what Chicago shoppers like Lena Howard already know: “What went up mostly didn’t come down”. She notes that everyday essentials ,“the milk, the eggs, the cereal”, all cost more now, forcing tough choices.
Drilling down into specific Chicago grocery items reveals double-digit price increases that mirror national trends. For instance, a can of coffee at one Chicago store climbed about 30% in price (from $6.50 to $8.50+) over the year. Ground beef prices jumped 25% at Chicago-area Jewel and Walmart locations during the same period, driven by factors like earlier droughts and smaller cattle herds. These are huge increases for staple proteins. Even typically stable products saw hikes – e.g. a pound of butter or a bag of chips cost ~10–20% more at some stores than a year ago. While a few items did drop (one brand of butter, one kind of chips), they were the exception, not the rule. Shoppers are also encountering shrinkflation, where product packages get smaller without a price cut. Manufacturers have been downsizing everything from cereal boxes to toilet paper rolls as a stealth way to raise prices. “Shrinkflation… has been around forever, and it’s not going anywhere,” one consumer advocate noted, underscoring that consumers are paying more for less product. All of these factors mean that in a city like Chicago, grocery bills are taking a bigger bite out of paychecks than before. Families adapt by seeking cheaper retailers (many Chicagoans drive to suburban warehouse clubs or discount grocers for better deals) and altering menus to use more affordable ingredients.
State-by-state grocery spending: The portion of income that Americans spend on groceries also differs by where they live. A new analysis by WalletHub identified the states where people spend the most (and least) on groceries as a share of household income. Interestingly, the states with the highest grocery cost burden are not necessarily those with the highest food prices – they are often states with lower incomes, which makes even moderate grocery bills hard to afford.
Mississippi tops the list as the state where groceries eat up the greatest share of income. Mississippi residents spend about 2.6% of their median household income on groceries, the largest percentage in the nation. This is despite Mississippi actually having the 6th-lowest grocery prices; the key factor is that Mississippi’s median income (around $55,000) is the lowest in the U.S., so food takes a larger bite of a smaller paycheck.
West Virginia is next, with over 2.5% of income going to groceries. West Virginia has the second-lowest median income nationally, which again drives up the relative burden. A few food items in West Virginia are moderately expensive (e.g. the state ranks 14th highest for egg prices and 8th for sugar), but many groceries are cheap. Still, lower wages mean even cheap eggs and bread feel costly.
Arkansas comes third, at roughly 2.4% of income spent on food at home. Arkansas likewise has one of the lowest median incomes (~$59k) and some of the lowest grocery prices (top 5 cheapest states for many items). The paradox is that limited incomes, not runaway food prices, are what push up the share of income spent on groceries in these states.
By contrast, higher-income states in the Northeast tend to devote the smallest share of earnings to groceries. For example, New Jersey and Massachusetts households spend only about 1.5% of their income on groceries – the lowest percentage in the country. Those states have much higher median incomes ($85k+), so even though groceries themselves are more expensive there, families can more easily absorb the costs. This contrast highlights a critical point in grocery affordability: where incomes are low, even “cheap” grocery prices can feel expensive relative to earnings. States like Mississippi and West Virginia face a grocery affordability challenge because of economic disparities. It’s an important reminder that fighting food insecurity isn’t just about taming food prices, but also about boosting incomes and assistance in under-resourced communities.
Innovative Solutions: Free Grocery Store Offers Relief in NYC
In the face of these challenges, communities and organizations are seeking creative ways to improve grocery affordability and reduce food insecurity. One headline-grabbing example this month is New York City’s first “free grocery store.” In mid-February, a pop-up store in Manhattan opened its doors and allowed people to shop for groceries at no cost.
Branded “The Polymarket," this temporary free grocery store was launched by Polymarket, a crypto prediction market startup, as a community initiative. The store offered New Yorkers free essentials – fresh produce, milk, eggs, bread, canned goods, and even household items – completely free of charge. Upon entering, shoppers were handed a reusable tote bag and greeted by a sign reading “Grab a tote. Take what you need.” There was even a stand giving out free flowers for Valentine’s Day, adding a touch of kindness to the experience. Over 400 people showed up on the first day the store opened (February 12, 2026) to fill their bags with free groceries.
This free grocery store NYC experiment, though short-lived (the pop-up was scheduled to remain open only for four days, until Feb 16), illustrates how communities can rally to address hunger in innovative ways. Polymarket not only ran the store but also donated $1 million to Food Bank for New York City as part of the effort – the equivalent of about 3 million meals donated to low-income New Yorkers. While the store itself is temporary, it provided immediate relief to many families and raised awareness about food insecurity. The concept essentially showed how to get free groceries to those who need them most: through public goodwill and creative partnerships. It also inched the conversation forward on larger proposals, like a New York City council idea to establish permanent city-run grocery stores with subsidized prices. When a private company stepped in and actually set up a free grocery outlet, it prompted both praise and debate about sustainable solutions to high food costs.
The takeaway is inspiring: free groceries – even if just for a day – can make a real difference for people struggling with high grocery prices. Seeing hundreds of neighbors line up for basic food staples drives home the reality of need in our communities. It also shows that with the right support, we can remove cost barriers and ensure everyone has access to food.
While food prices remain high and continue to challenge Americans’ budgets, there are signs of hope...and with your help, we’re turning the tide to keep everyone fed.
